Argonne National Laboratory

 What is VISION?

The VISION model has been developed to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use and carbon emission impacts of advanced light- and heavy-duty vehicle technologies and alternative fuels through the year 2050. Beginning in 2008, the analysis horizon has been extended to 2100. The model consists of two Excel workbooks: a Base Case of US highway fuel use and carbon emissions to 2050 (to 2100 in 2008 and newer versions) and a copy (of the Base Case) that can be modified to reflect alternative assumptions about advanced vehicle and alternative fuel market penetration.

Annual Updates

The VISION model is updated annually. The Base Case in the most recent version of the model is based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) projections of light and heavy vehicle energy use in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013. EIA’s AEO 2013 projections end in the year 2040. In the 2013 VISION model update, these projections are extended to the year 2100. For greenhouse gas emissions, the VISION model uses carbon coefficients derived from Argonne’s GREET model. The carbon coefficients are for the full fuel cycle.

Latest model. The latest version of the model is called “VISION 2013 AEO Base Case.” The 2013 version is updated with greenhouse gas (GHG) and upstream energy rates from GREET1_2012_rev2. The improved features of GREET1_2012_rev2 are listed at http://greet.es.anl.gov/. In VISION 2013, the historical stock and VMT of light, medium and heavy duty trucks are updated to reflect the changes in FHWA Highway Statistics Table VM-1.

Beginning with the 2012 version, the procedure for computing electricity vehicle miles traveled (VMT) share of PHEV VMT is updated to reflect the new methodology in the SAE Standard J2841. The model was also updated to allow natural gas-powered medium and heavy trucks to use diesel as pilot injection fuel. A user can specify the percent fuel (GGE) that will be diesel. Besides, more hydrogen production pathways have been added and ethanol production pathways have been expanded to include sugarcane as a feedstock. Moreover, three summaries have been added: (1) hydrogen results, (2) feedstock energy results, and (3) fuel energy results. The hydrogen results summarize hydrogen consumption by production pathway while feedstock and fuel energy results summarize upstream energy use in production of each end-use fuel. Earlier in its 2010 version, the VISION model was also expanded to enable simulation of natural gas-powered medium- and single-unit heavy trucks and liquid natural gas-powered heavy combination trucks.

 

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